The receipts
Every number in this world comes from the proposed rule, the model page, or the cited literature. Where CMS invited comment, that's flagged in the full analysis.
- CMS — FY 2027 IPPS Proposed Rule (CMS-1849-P), Section X.C: the CJR-X model. Proposed April 10, 2026; PY1 begins October 1, 2027 (§ 512.630(a)); mandatory for eligible IPPS hospitals nationwide (§ 512.615). Triggers: MS-DRG 469/470/521/522 + HCPCS 27130/27447 (§ 512.610). CMS CJR-X model page
- Target price: 100% regional benchmark from PY1 (§ 512.640); TEAM's nine-lever risk adjustment (§ 512.645); trend correction capped ±3%; normalization capped ±5%; 2.0% discount (§ 512.605, § 512.640(b)(8)).
- Composite Quality Score: RSCR, OP-36, HCAHPS, OAS CAHPS, PRO-PM — complications 50%, patient experience 40%, PROs 10% (§ 512.635); Excellent zeroes the discount, Below Acceptable is excluded from reconciliation payments (§ 512.645(h), Table X.C-05).
- Post-acute care as the margin lever: Haas et al., JAMA Internal Medicine 2019 — CJR savings were driven primarily by reduced SNF utilization; Dundon et al. — coordination cut SNF use from 28.8% to 6.7% and readmissions from 7.4% to 4.1%. Reconciliation corridors ±20% standard / ±5% protected (§ 512.650(c)(6)); post-episode monitoring days 91–120.
- PROMs: collection mandatory via the HIQR program since July 1, 2025 (PROMIS Global-10, VR-12, HOOS Jr., KOOS Jr.); ≥50% postoperative collection required for full annual payment by 2028; PRO-PM is 10% of CQS but frequently decides the Good-vs-Excellent tier.
- Outreach and navigation evidence: Phillips et al. — nurse navigation cut 90-day episode costs by $1,575 per Medicare patient; Rosner et al. — automated digital engagement reduced avoidable 90-day costs by $656 per patient with 54% fewer complications; CJR-X waives up to nine ~$50 post-discharge home visits per episode (§ 512.695(c)) against $15,000–25,000 readmissions; telehealth flexibility (§ 512.695(a)).
- Christian Pean, MD, MBA — Follow the Incentives and The Operator's Guide to CJR-X.
This world reflects CMS-1849-P as proposed. A proposed rule is a starting position: the discount factor, safety-net threshold, and caps are open to public comment, and the final rule may differ. Policy analysis, not legal or financial advice.