Techy SurgeonCJR-X · EXPLAINER
AAHKSTechy SurgeonPrepared for the AAHKS community
Final rule · CMS-1849-F A 6-minute explainer

What is CJR-X, and why does every hip & knee surgeon need to know by January 2028?

On August 4, 2026 CMS finalized the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Expanded model. It is mandatory, it is nationwide, and for the first time in the Innovation Center's history it has no end date. Ten screens, no jargon left unexplained. Use the arrows or your keyboard.

Hip and knee implant models on a walnut desk with a teal light filament: mandatory, nationwide, permanent
Starts
Jan 1, 2028
Calendar-year performance years
Episode
90 days
Anchor stay/procedure + 90 days post-discharge
Discount
2.0%
Cut to 1% or 0% by quality score
Risk corridor
−20 / +20%
−5% for protected hospitals
→ or space to advance
1 / 9 The idea in one sentence

One price for the whole joint-replacement episode, and the hospital owns the difference.

Today Medicare pays each provider separately: the hospital, the surgeon, the SNF, the home-health agency, the readmission. Under CJR-X, CMS still pays everyone the usual way, then adds up everything related for 90 days after discharge and compares the total to a target price. Below the target, the hospital receives a reconciliation payment. Above it, the hospital repays Medicare.

Four glass slabs on a white table: hospital, home, therapy, calendar, joined by one teal line — one episode, 90 days
ANCHOR
Hip, knee, or ankle replacement
Inpatient MS-DRG 469/470/521/522 or HOPD HCPCS 27447/27130. Hip-fracture arthroplasty is in.
90 DAYS
Everything related
Post-acute care, physician services, readmissions, Part B, DME, therapy.
TARGET
Regional price minus discount
Nine Census divisions × episode type, risk-adjusted, three-year baseline.
RECONCILE
Pay or repay
Annually, six months after the year ends, within the risk corridor.
42 CFR §§ 512.625, 512.630, 512.640, 512.650
2 / 9 Who is in

Nearly every acute-care hospital that does joint replacements. No application, no opt-out.

Participation is mandatory for hospitals paid under both IPPS and OPPS in the 50 states, DC, and the territories. Requests for voluntary participation, phased geography, or delay were all denied.

In

Acute-care hospitals initiating LEJR episodes. Our public-data estimate: about 2,400 hospitals clear the volume floor.

Out

TEAM participants (until TEAM ends), Maryland hospitals, critical access hospitals, rural emergency hospitals, IHS/Tribal, Rural Community Hospital demo sites.

Low-volume

Fewer than 31 episodes across the three-year baseline: no target price and no reconciliation for that year. Reassessed annually.

TEAM hospitals

The ~741 TEAM hospitals join CJR-X on January 1, 2031, the day after TEAM ends. Every LEJR investment made under TEAM carries over.

ASCs and surgeons

ASC procedures do not trigger episodes and physician groups are not participants. Surgeons enter through gainsharing with the hospital, which is voluntary for the hospital (AAHKS's ask to mandate it was denied).

§ 512.610 · § 512.605 · §§ 512.670–512.680
3 / 9 The target price

100% regional. Risk-adjusted. Rebased every year.

There is no hospital-specific blend this time. Your target is the Census-division average for your episode type, built from a three-year baseline weighted 17 / 33 / 50 toward the most recent year, then adjusted for patient and hospital risk, trended forward, normalized, capped for outliers at the 99th percentile, and discounted.

A map of the United States cut into nine glowing glass regions — nine regions, one price each
Regions
9
Census divisions × 4 DRGs + 2 HCPCS = 36 benchmark prices
Risk adjusters
29
Bed size, safety-net status, age, HCC count, 21 HCC flags, economic risk, prior procedures, prior PAC, disability
Baseline
3 yrs
17 / 33 / 50 weighting; the PY1 baseline is already closed
Corrections
±3 / ±5%
Trend and normalization retrospective caps

If your episode costs run above your region today, that gap is in your target from day one. Comorbidity documentation inside the 180-day lookback is now target-price construction.

§ 512.640 · § 512.645
4 / 9 The discount and the quality score

Medicare keeps 2% off the top. Quality can give it back.

A 2.0% discount builds the preliminary target. At reconciliation CMS re-sets the discount using your Composite Quality Score (0–20), built from five measures: THA/TKA complications (50%), HCAHPS (40%), and the PRO-PM (10%) for inpatient episodes; OP-36 hospital visits, OAS CAHPS, and the PRO-PM for outpatient episodes.

Four lit stone tiles stepping down from green to teal to gold to rose — quality sets the discount
Excellent · CQS ≥ 17.1
0%
Full benchmark. Keep every dollar below it.
Good · 12.1–17.0
1%
Discount halved.
Acceptable · 6.1–12.0
2%
Full discount; still eligible for payments.
Below Acceptable · ≤ 6.0
2%
And no reconciliation payment at all. Repayment still owed.

Points are assigned by national percentile on each measure; a missing measure scores at the 50th percentile. On a $30M LEJR book, Acceptable-to-Excellent is roughly $600,000 a year before any savings. The PRO-PM is pay-for-performance from PY1 and is also the Hospital IQR measure whose non-reporting costs a quarter of the market-basket update on all inpatient revenue.

§ 512.635 · § 512.645(h) · § 512.650(d)
5 / 9 The risk corridors

Two-sided risk from day one. No glide path.

Repayment and reconciliation payment are each capped at 20% of the hospital's aggregated target. Medicare-dependent, rural, safety-net, and sole-community hospitals get a 5% repayment cap; their upside stays at 20%. AHA asked for a five-year phase-in; AAHKS asked for TEAM-style tracks. Both were denied on actuarial-certification grounds.

A glass runway with a teal rail and a rose rail, plus a shorter gold rail — two-sided risk with guardrails
Standard hospital
−20% / +20%
On a $30M portfolio: up to $6M owed, up to $6M earned
Protected hospital
−5% / +20%
MDH · rural (CBSA) · safety-net (top quartile regional dual-eligible LEJR share) · SCH
Outside the cap
Days 91–120
Post-episode spending more than 3 SD above the regional average is repayable outside the corridor

The safety-net line is a cliff at the 25th percentile. A hospital at the 24th gets neither the risk adjuster nor the 5% cap.

§ 512.650(c)(6)–(7) · § 512.605
6 / 9 Why the inpatient side is a fracture model

With elective joints moving outpatient, DRGs 521/522 dominate the inpatient book.

Hip-fracture arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty included, groups to MS-DRG 521/522 and triggers a full 90-day episode. These are not optimized elective patients; they arrive through the ED with hours, not weeks, of preparation, higher MCC rates, and post-acute trajectories that run through SNFs.

  • The five prior-procedure risk flags include partial hip, and 21 HCC flags carry dementia, heart failure, CKD, and diabetes with complications. Risk adjustment pays for what you document in the 180-day lookback.
  • ED-to-OR velocity, geriatric co-management, delirium prevention, and disposition planning from admission are now bundle economics, not just quality programs.
  • Fixation (ORIF, cephalomedullary nail) groups to DRGs 480–482 and lives in TEAM's hip-fracture category, not CJR-X. The arthroplasty-versus-fixation call for a femoral neck fracture is also a payment-model boundary.
  • ASC decanting exports your healthiest, lowest-cost episodes and leaves the frail book behind. Model it before you do it.
§ 512.625 · § 512.645 · Techy Surgeon analysis
A hip radiograph on a lightbox in a quiet reading room — the fracture book
7 / 9 Timeline

Seventeen months to PY1. The quality clocks start sooner.

Now
Baseline is closed
PY1 targets draw on the three years before 2028. Behavior through 2027 is priced in.
2027
Measure windows open
CQS performance periods run ahead of the performance year on IQR/OQR cadences.
Nov 2027
Preliminary target prices
Delivered by end of November before each performance year, with baseline data.
Jan 1, 2028
PY1 begins
Full two-sided risk. Monthly claims feeds available under a data-sharing agreement.
Jan 1, 2031
TEAM hospitals join
Model continues with no end date.
§ 512.605 · § 512.630 · § 512.640 · § 512.665
8 / 9 What to do now

Six moves for a hip & knee service line before 2028.

A forest path in golden mist with a teal data filament braided through the moss — navigation is infrastructure

1 · Know your number

Where does your episode cost sit against your Census-division average, and where does your estimated CQS land? The engine gives a first read for every hospital.

2 · Fix the PRO-PM capture

≥50% matched pre/post-op PROMs. It is 10% of the CQS, pay-for-performance from PY1, and an IQR penalty if missed.

3 · Document for the 180-day lookback

The 21 HCC flags and prior-procedure flags are your risk adjustment. Fracture patients especially.

4 · Build the post-acute network

SNF 3-day waiver needs ≥3-star SNFs; nine reimbursable home visits per episode; telehealth codes that outlive the national extensions.

5 · Negotiate gainsharing early

Sharing is voluntary and can pass through 100% of the reconciliation payment. Come with case mix and post-acute referral patterns quantified. No Stark/AKS waivers this time; use the CMS-sponsored-model safe harbor.

6 · Stand up navigation as infrastructure

Monthly claims feeds, PT- and APP-led virtual touchpoints through the 90 days, and a way to see the post-acute black box before the reconciliation report does.

§§ 512.635, 512.665, 512.670–512.695
9 / 9 Go deeper

Look up your hospital. Read the full analysis. Bring in help.

The engine

Every hospital's estimated CQS tier, quality-adjusted discount, corridor, and regional target proxy, from public CMS data.

Open the CJR-X Engine

The Operator's Guide

The section-by-section walkthrough of the final rule, with the comment-letter scorecard, on Techy Surgeon.

Read on Substack

RevelAi Health

AI care navigation and episode analytics for TEAM, CJR-X, and the ACCESS Model, deployed with health systems and PT partners.

Prepare with RevelAi →

AAHKSTechy Surgeon

Christian Péan MD, MS · orthopedic trauma surgeon · Duke faculty · CEO, RevelAi Health. Every parameter checked against the Federal Register text of CMS-1849-F (91 FR 49570). Educational content; not affiliated with CMS; not endorsed by AAHKS unless stated. Less noise, more signal.